DERIVED — check the arithmetic yourself
Real baccarat with a 5% banker commission: banker ~1.0%, player ~1.3%, tie ~14%.
- MEASURED, not closed-form: 2M coups through the drawing rules this table actually deals, from a fixed seed so the figure is reproducible.
- Roulette above is exact arithmetic. This one is a simulation, so it carries a sampling wobble of about a tenth of a point — which is why it is quoted to one decimal, not four.
- P(banker) 45.87% · P(player) 44.56% · P(tie) 9.57%
- Banker: you lose 44.56% of decided coups and win 45.87% at 0.95 after the 5% — a 0.98% edge.
- The tie pays 9 but lands 9.57% of the time: a 13.9% edge, about 14 times worse than banker, and it is the bet every floor pushes hardest.
- Assumes each card is drawn independently. A real eight-deck shoe is slightly different: the flat bets move by under a tenth of a point, the tie by more, because a tie depends on exact card counts and depletion bites hardest there. Stated rather than glossed — the assumption is part of the derivation.
Our banker bet carries the same 5% commission, so this figure is ours as well as theirs.
No unsourced real-casino figure appears anywhere in this section. Where an edge follows from the rules it is derived and shown; where it does not, it is left out and the reason given.